Green Party climate change target and National Government

On August 4th 2009 the Green Party released a study entitled ‘Getting There’, which was an attempt to influence the current National Government in setting a 40% emissions reduction target for 2020. The study was released one week before an emissions reduction target was due to be announced, as part of a global agreement leading up to climate change talks (COP15) taking place in Copenhagen late 2009.

‘Getting There’ outlines ways “New Zealand can reduce its carbon emissions dramatically and cheaply” (Fitzsimmons J, 2009). Net emissions reduction opportunities are outlined in five key areas: Energy, Transport, Agriculture, New Forest Plantings and Indigenous Forest Enhancement.

“Environment Minister Nick Smith says it’s too hard and too expensive to set a responsible target” (Fitzsimmons J, 2009) and this study is a direct attempt to contradict this and similar statements made by the National Government. The accompanying press release also raises serious questions about the figures calculated by the National Government with regards to associated costs of emissions reductions – reportedly using inflated carbon prices of $200/tonne when the figure used by Ministry for the Environment and general consensus is said to be around $25/tonne (Ministry for the Environment 2008).

The study states that New Zealand cannot rely solely on an emissions trading scheme (ETS) to provide the incentives to shift to a low carbon economy – further funding is required for a range of measures (outlined below). It also repeats the urgency to act on emissions reductions, stating that emissions reductions need to start now so that savings can accumulate by 2020.

There is acknowledgement that the New Zealand public requires a change of attitude and perceptions; in relations to understanding the change that is needed to take place in order to reach a 40% emissions reduction target. It is not New Zealand’s responsibility, but our international obligation to reduce our carbon emissions, and this can be done “at little or no cost if efficiencies are widely applied” (New Zealand Herald, 2009). It will also bring many co-benefits from economic efficiency to improved environmental quality.

It is important that this document is critiqued in the context for which it was written. ‘Getting There’ was written as a political tool for the Green party, to attempt to undermine the credibility of the National Governments opposition in setting a bold emissions reduction target. It attempts to show this by presenting a possible affordable path on which New Zealand could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020.

The study does not even show how New Zealand can reduce its emissions to 40% below 1990 levels in 2020, because the strategy outlines purchasing 11Mt worth of emissions credits from overseas. Quick calculations of the numbers show that the reductions shown only give a reduction to 21% below 1990 levels in 2020, therefore the purchase of emissions credits represents the final 19% of the target. After personally questioning the integrity of including purchased credits in meeting an emissions reduction target on the Green party blog, I received the following response from Nandor Tanczos:

Even if the plan relies on buying some credits, that is not a bad thing. If we want poor countries to adopt strategies to reduce emissions (or protect sinks) we need some wealth transfer from rich countries like ours as part of a global transition plan.

The National government have symbolically showed their commitment (or lack thereof) through the subsequent repeal of the New Zealand Energy Strategy (NZES) and the New Zealand Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy (NZEECS) that both attempted to set a track for a New Zealand transition to a low carbon economy.

A lot of the calculations undertaken in producing the document can be seen to be relatively ‘back of the envelope’. But this is seen to be expected, as the purpose of presenting absolute numbers is more symbolic than scientific in this case. Of concern is the number of sketchy assumptions that are made throughout and the lack of analysis for bold measures.

‘Getting There’ provides a good overview of potential savings that could be applied to New Zealand’s economy, a number of the methods and initiatives are questionable when applied to real case. But it does achieve its primary objective; to present a case for setting a 40% emissions reduction target in line with the Green party policy and the Greenpeace ‘sign on’ campaign.

Convincing the National government into setting a bold emissions reduction target is a rather uphill battle, especially when Gerry Brownlee holds both the Minister for Economic Development and Minister of Energy and Resources portfolios.